Opinion: Maybe not the campaign many expected
For more than a year, Manitoba’s New Democratic Party has held a huge lead over the governing Progressive Conservatives in public opinion polls. In Winnipeg, where the majority of ridings are located, the NDP have led the Tories by as much as 33 points.
Those poll results have caused many to assume the NDP are cruising to a massive victory in October’s general election, with the Tories facing the prospect of a near-wipeout inside the Perimeter.
That assumption has led NDP leader Wab Kinew and his election team to adopt a classic “front-runner” campaign strategy — a “play it safe” approach that aims to minimize mistakes by being short on details about what an NDP government would actually do if given the reins of power by voters.
Mike Deal / Winnipeg Free Press Files
The election is far from a done deal. Premier Heather Stefanson, NDP Opposition Leader Wab Kinew, and MB Liberal Leader, Dougald Lamont have much to prove to voters before ballots are cast.
The flaw in that approach is that the poll numbers are misleading. They suggest an NDP landslide is looming, but a more detailed analysis at the riding-by-riding level suggests we are facing a tighter race and closer outcome than the poll numbers imply. Indeed, the Tories and NDP could each struggle to win the 29 seats they need to form a majority government.
Several different outcomes are plausible in the current circumstances: a very small NDP majority or minority government, or a narrow PC majority or minority. There is also a viable scenario in which the NDP and Tories each end up with fewer than 29 seats, with the Liberals holding the balance of power.
The election’s result could be that close, and that possibility will force both the Tories and the NDP to change their campaign strategies. In fact, we can already see it in the approach Heather Stefanson’s PC campaign team is now taking. It has shifted from a grim expectation of inevitable defeat to the sense that they still have a shot at winning the election.
Instead of devoting their effort and attention toward saving enough seats to give them hope of forming government in four years, the Tory campaign will be directing resources toward retaining Winnipeg ridings that, just six months ago, they regarded as lost causes.
Another component of the Tories’ new approach is the $1 million-plus budgeted by the Stefanson government to promote Budget 2023 measures and other items such as affordable child care and the affordability cheques that were recently sent to Manitobans. Team Tory wouldn’t bother doing that if they believed they were facing annihilation.
For the NDP, the election has shifted from what many expected to be an easy coronation to what will be a tough campaign for change, requiring an entirely different strategy. The party does not have the luxury of passively waiting for the Stefanson government to defeat itself. Rather, they must convince swing voters that the roster of NDP candidates is better than the Tory group, and would deliver positive results on the tough issues that have dogged the Stefanson government.
Given the NDP’s record of mismanagement and broken promises during its 16 years in government, however, that could be a tough sell.
For example, Wab Kinew claims that a new NDP government led by him would solve the many challenges that plague our health-care system, but most voters still remember that Manitoba had many of the worst health care wait times in Canada under the previous NDP government. They invented the phrase “highway medicine.”
Kinew has offered no specifics on how his government would do better. Given his party’s poor track record, vague promises won’t cut the mustard. Swing voters will require detailed, plausible plans.
The NDP must also convince jaded voters that the party can fix our education and justice systems, repair our inner cities and implement an effective addictions treatment strategy without raising taxes. Or, if they do plan to raise taxes, they must say by how much. Being coy on the issue will only fuel concerns about a “secret agenda.”
This won’t be the type of election campaign many Manitobans were expecting. What many assumed would be an NDP cakewalk may well be the tightest Manitoba election in a generation — a tough choice between the devil voters know (the Tories) and the devil they remember (the NDP). The outcome is anybody’s guess.
Deveryn Ross is a political commentator living in Brandon. [email protected] Twitter: @deverynross
